Last Updated: 10.29.2025
PRBL News (“PRBL”) is committed to delivering forward-looking journalism grounded in clarity, transparency, and responsible probability modeling.
Our goal is not only to report what is happening now, but to help readers understand what is likely to happen next.
This page explains the values, practices, and responsibilities that guide our editorial process.
1) Mission
PRBL provides:
- Evidence-based reporting on current events
- Forward-looking analysis
- Probabilistic forecasting
- Clear scenario framing
We focus on context over sensation and probability over speculation.
2) Core Principles
PRBL is built on the following editorial commitments:
✅ Clarity
We communicate complex trends in plain language.
✅ Transparency
We explain why forecasts are made, including:
- Inputs
- Methods
- Confidence bands
- Time horizons
✅ Accountability
We track outcomes against prior forecasts (Scorecard).
✅ Neutrality
We prioritize facts and credible reasoning over ideology.
✅ Humility
Forecasts are probability estimates, not promises.
We revisit and revise our assessments when data changes.
3) Content Types
PRBL publishes:
- Forecasts
→ Probabilities + scenarios - Signal Summaries
→ Key inputs from current events - Deep Dives
→ Sector- or region-specific outlooks - Scorecard Analyses
→ Retrospective accuracy checks - Methods / Policy Notes
All content must:
- Present the “now”
- Project the “next”
- Cite key drivers
4) Sourcing
We use:
- Publicly available information
- Reputable institutional data
- Official releases
- Market signals
- Historical analogs
- Expert commentary (when included)
We avoid:
- Anonymous rumor-driven reporting
- Clickbait headlines
- Unverified claims
Sources are cited when appropriate; otherwise, context is stated.
5) Forecast Structure
Forecasts are produced according to a standard format including:
- Current Signal (what’s happening now)
- Base-Case Probability
- Upside/Downside Paths
- Time Horizon
- Key Drivers
- Counter-Signals
- Confidence Band
- Comparable historical patterns (when relevant)
This structure makes our output consistent and easy to evaluate over time.
6) Confidence Bands
PRBL uses five likelihood categories:
| Label | Range |
|---|---|
| Very High Confidence | ≥ 92% |
| High | 75–91% |
| Moderate | 55–74% |
| Low | 35–54% |
| Very Low / Tail Risk | < 35% |
These reflect forecasting strength, not scientific proof.
Forecasts should never imply certainty (100%).
7) Bias Minimization
We actively aim to reduce distortive influences such as:
- Partisan framing
- Sensationalism
- Emotional language
- Fear-based persuasion
Editors are expected to ask:
“Is this conclusion supported by the evidence and reasoning provided?”
8) No Financial / Legal / Medical Advice
PRBL does not issue:
- Investment recommendations
- Legal instruction
- Medical guidance
Content is informational and educational only.
9) Corrections
If we publish materially incorrect information:
- We correct it promptly
- We note the change clearly when appropriate
Transparency is more important than appearances.
10) Revisions
Forecasts may be revised as conditions change.
Revision is not failure — it is responsible stewardship of probabilistic information.
Changes may reflect:
- New data
- Policy shifts
- Macro shocks
- Updated models
Older versions may remain accessible for context.
11) Scorecard
PRBL maintains a Scorecard to track:
- Forecasted scenarios
- Final outcomes
- Accuracy ratings
This reinforces:
- Intellectual honesty
- Transparency
- Reader trust
Not all outcomes are binary; nuanced result reporting is permitted.
12) Ethical Standards
We commit to:
- Avoiding manipulation of data
- Declaring uncertainty honestly
- Differentiating facts from interpretation
- Respecting privacy and legal boundaries
13) Editorial Independence
PRBL’s editorial decisions are not dictated by:
- Advertisers
- Partners
- Political groups
Sponsored content (if used) will be clearly labeled.
14) Reader Feedback
We invite critique and refinement.
This includes:
- Methodological suggestions
- Accuracy challenges
- Forecast discussion
Contact: editorial@prbl.news (placeholder)
✅ Closing
Forecasting is inherently uncertain.
PRBL seeks to do it responsibly — transparently, consistently, and humbly — to help readers think clearly about the near future.